MPs kept in dark on disastrous Labor poll

Prime Minister Julia Gillard's top supporters say there's no way she'll step down this week.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Picture: Kym Smith Source: The Daily Telegraph

AN internal ALP report containing polling for 40 seats across Australia, and circulated among selected members of Julia Gillard's leadership group, shows Labor would be lucky to retain 30 to 35 seats after the election.

But the report has not been shared with most Labor MPs.

The Daily Telegraph has obtained data from the party's UMR research report compiled for the ALP national secretariat in the past two weeks.

It shows that in NSW, the swing against Labor is 10 to 12 per cent on average and warns it would lose 12 seats in NSW, the majority in Sydney.

In WA, the report warns of a wipe-out with the party unlikely to retain any seats, but for the outside chance of keeping Fremantle.

In SA, it would keep only two seats, including Kingston.

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It would lose all four seats in Tasmania. The polling report shows that independent Andrew Wilkie would keep Denison, however.

It would also lose its two seats in the Northern Territory. In Victoria, it has forecast the loss of eight seats.

And in Queensland, Labor would be left with only Kevin Rudd's seat of Griffith and possibly the seat of Oxley.

A senior ALP source confirmed that a select group of cabinet ministers in the leadership group were aware of the report but had declined to circulate it or share the results with MPs at risk of losing their seats.

It warns that Labor, with an overall primary vote of 32 per cent, would likely only retain between 30 and 35 seats in the 150 seat House of Representatives - a loss of more than half its existing MPs.

The report showing the polling results of 40 seats across the country also reveals that the swings were twice as bad in seats held by Labor than those it didn't hold - confirming the electorate was now intent on punishing Labor.

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"This reduces us to a rump. I'm not sure people realise this is going to be a defeat of the likes the Labor Party has never seen," the ALP source said.

Several MPs last night, when told of the report, demanded that the results be shared with the caucus.

The polling report comes on the back of analysis by The Daily Telegraph warning that Labor would also likely be stripped of any influence in the Senate, with the Coalition being delivered command of the numbers in both houses of parliament.

Yesterday Rudd supporter and veteran ALP strategist and campaigner Bruce Hawker warned that the Labor Party and the trade union movement risked oblivion if it lost its ability to influence the Senate - with Labor and the Greens likely to be able to command no more than 36 votes out of the 76.

He warned that last time the Coalition had control of both houses, it introduced WorkChoices.

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"This is very real danger for Labor if we lose control of the Senate as well as the House of Representatives because at that point the new government has carte blanche to do whatever it likes, such as industrial relations," Mr Hawker told Meet the Press. With leadership tensions likely to reach flashpoint this week, Kevin Rudd has been warned by his key supporters that he now has no choice but to challenge Julia Gillard this week for the leadership.

In a sign of growing frustration within Mr Rudd's camp, he has been told that he will have to abandon his pledge and force a spill this week to settle the leadership issue once and for all.

"He has just got to do it, even if he loses," one of Mr Rudd's key backers said yesterday.

Another senior MP supporting a change back to Mr Rudd said that it was now up to the former prime minister to make it happen.

"No one is going to do it for him. He will not get what he wants, being carried in on our shoulders."

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But several senior ministers yesterday again dismissed the suggestion a challenge to Ms Gillard would come this week and denied she had lost the majority support of caucus.

Defence Minister Stephen Smith said he did not believe Mr Rudd would stand up and contest.

Communications Minister Stephen Conroy joined a growing chorus of Gillard loyalists goading Mr Rudd to challenge if he believed he had the numbers.

But he said he wouldn't serve under Mr Rudd.

"I support Julia Gillard. I don't believe there will be change," Senator Conroy told Sky News' Australian Agenda.

"But I don't believe I would be in a position to be on a front bench."

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