There are several ways a Rudd second coming could occur but all of them would pose problems for Labor. Source: News Limited
It's speculation Julia Gillard doesn't need and her rival has tried to put on ice - but Kevin Rudd's return to the leadership could still happen.
PRIME Minister-in-Exile Kevin Rudd is desperately trying to hose down speculation he wants his old job back. It "ain't happening" he said in typical folksy fashion, then deployed a range of metaphors to take the heat off the debate.
"A couple of weeks ago I said everyone should take a cold shower. Last Friday I said they should have an ice bath. It's time this debate was put into cryogenic storage," he said.
An interesting concept, cryogenic storage. It's a way of snap freezing something so that it can be restored, revived, at a later date.
So does Mr Rudd fancy himself, Han Solo-like, coming out of deep freeze to rescue Labor?
Kevin Rudd says he isn't interested in challenging PM Julia Gillard for the party leadership.
Or will he just white-ant away in the background while Prime Minister Julia Gillard tries to soldier her way through to the next election?
Or are all these anonymous sources just messing around with journalists' minds?
It may seem at this point that anything could happen. There's plenty of chatter, lots of "backgrounding" going on. Lots of people with vested interests.
Julia Gillard was keeping up a brave face today, even though her polling numbers have collapsed barely six months out from the election
So let's peer into the election crystal ball and try to discern the shape of things to come.
Option 1: Ms Gillard toughs it out
Ms Gillard has shown she can hold her nerve in the face of devastating polls and internal treachery. She's resilient.
She may not have the support of the public, but at least she has the public support of most of her colleagues.
She brushed off yesterday's Nielsen poll that not only put Labor's primary vote at a pitiful 30 per cent but had Opposition Leader Tony Abbott surging past her as preferred Prime Minister.
Her language is tough. She'll ignore the polls to focus on governing, she says.
Yesterday Australian Worker's Union boss Paul Howes said she was "street tough" and had his union's backing.
Senior ministers said Mr Rudd was an asset, not a challenge to the party.
In this scenario, Ms Gillard's best hope is that Mr Abbott is somehow exposed through his policies, his perceived lack of policies, or the costings of his policies, while she just has to hold the wheel steady and try to avoid more disasters like the mining tax and hope the leadership rumblings fade away.
Option 2: Ms Gillard falls on her sword, and Mr Rudd sweeps in to rescue Labor
"If Newspoll is down to 30 like Nielsen, I think she's gone." Former senior Labor MP and political commentator Graham Richardson doesn't mince his words.
"I don't think caucus can sit by and allow that massacre," he said. He added that this would be the preferred option if next week's Newspoll echoes the Nielsen findings - Ms Gillard pulls out `voluntarily', the position's declared vacant and Mr Rudd gets his chance to step up without being seen to be knifing his knifer. He saves the day.
The election date could be pushed out to November, and they can present themselves as a reformed team who listens to the people.
This is the situation the Opposition is both afraid of and preparing for in their election campaign.
Associate Professor Haydon Manning, politics lecturer at Flinders University, points out that while this situation is looking more likely, the Labor Party must be aware of how horrendous a Liberal Party election campaign would be if Mr Rudd was back in charge after his colleagues claimed he was a "psychopath" and tore into his management style.
Option 3: Mr Rudd challenges and loses
If Ms Gillard keeps hanging on grimly, there's a small chance Mr Rudd will get impatient and launch a challenge. He doesn't have the numbers - not yet.
But there is speculation that if some of Ms Gillard's more powerful backers switch allegiances, he would risk the bloodbath that any challenge would surely be.
But if he misjudges it, and fails, would the PM then have some clear air?
It's more likely the public, which seems to be tuning out of anything Labor says, will turn off altogether at this sign of utter disfunctionality.
Mr Rudd, sources say, would be unlikely to challenge because he would have to go back on his word that he wouldn't.
He would rather be drafted in, begged to assist, and be the hero.
Option 4: Mr Rudd challenges and wins
This is a situation with two big ifs. If he challenged, and if he won, would the public forgive Labor?
While yesterday's poll showed that 61 per cent of people would love Rudd Mark II, that includes the Coalition voters who may well just love the idea of another night of the long knives.
Again, this scenario raises the spectre of a Liberal campaign that focuses on how bad Ms Gillard's supporters said Rudd was the first time around.
Then there's the question of trust. Labor's broken promise on the carbon tax means people lost faith in the party, and if Mr Rudd retakes the top job, trust becomes an issue again.
Because he promised he wouldn't have another crack.
Mr Richardson says Mr Rudd "has to be invited"; he can't just crash the party.
Option 5: Labor unites behind a mystery third option
It could be a nice narrative. Another contender, one with a clean(ish) sheet, comes out to steer the party, albeit to almost certain defeat.
It's a compromise of sorts.
The names bandied about in this scenario include frontbenchers Stephen Smith and Bill Shorten, and even former leader Simon Crean. Late yesterday, Sportingbet Australia had Mr Shorten at odds of $21.
Could Labor unite behind a fresh face, and tell a convincing story of a new party? It could be a new beginning, and Labor desperately needs a new beginning.
But then there's Mr Rudd. And Mr Rudd, as Assoc Prof Manning points out, just "doesn't go away".
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