Home evacuation on Victoria, St Windsor, as waters rise on Sunday. Picture: Glen Male Source: The Courier-Mail
THOUSANDS of Brisbane and Ipswich residents face days of uncertainty as swollen creeks and rivers deliver a "double whammy" for the second time in just over two years.
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Intense rainfall directly over the Wivenhoe Dam catchment was yesterday blamed for the sudden change in outlook for the southeast corner, which had been expected to avoid a repeat of the devastating 2011 floods.
Falls of another 100mm are now projected to cause the Brisbane and Bremer rivers to breach their banks over 24 hours from midnight tonight, with a second dose of flooding to flow into tomorrow and Wednesday.
Parts of Brisbane were already flooded last night, with four people rescued from an Ashgrove property after a torrent of water trapped them in their home on Mossvale St.
Waves crash into the breakwater and yachts which are beginning to slip their moorings at Redcliffe, in wild weather as a result of Ex Tropical cyclone Oswald. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen
Police said the street had been evacuated early in the evening, but residents of the house decided to stay behind before becoming concerned by rising water and calling for help.
Preparing for the worst, more than 100 cars lined up for sandbags at Newmarket SES depot.
Ex-Cyclone Oswald's march down the Queensland coast left a trail of destruction and caused flash flooding throughout the weekend.
But in a dramatic few hours late yesterday, authorities revealed the worst was not over.
More than 5000 homes and businesses across Brisbane are now expected to flood over the next few days, including in suburbs such as Rocklea, Rosalie, Milton and Auchenflower, which were hit hard in 2011. But areas not flooded in 2011 are also now in the firing line, with creeks rising across the city along with the Brisbane River.
In Ipswich, 400 properties are expected to face some flooding in Brassall, Bundamba, Goodna, Churchill, Moores Pocket, North Boovall and West Ipswich.
Premier Campbell Newman said the floods would not be as devastating as two years ago.
He urged people not to panic, but to check the flood maps and to prepare if they were in an area that may flood.
"If it doesn't occur, then I'm sorry in advance," the Premier said.
Brisbane Lord Mayor Graham Quirk said computer modelling showed 3600 residential dwellings faced some degree of flooding, including 1500 houses and 2100 units.
Another 1250 businesses are also expected to be flooded.
"It's worse than what we thought at lunchtime," the Lord Mayor said late yesterday.
An elderly man has been confirmed dead in Qld's unfolding flood crisis, with grave fears for three others.
"The intensity of the rainfall in certain localities, and the modelling which is before us is indicating the amount of water coming down from the west will result in flooding in the Brisbane River."
The first area within Brisbane to be affected by the rising river would be Moggill, he said.
"That would be very late on Monday evening when the river reached its heights," Cr Quirk said.
"Then there would be a repeat on the Tuesday evening.
"So we're not going to see any flood impacts on the CBD, but there will be properties in a whole range of suburbs."
He also warned of further flooding, caused by overflowing creeks and some big high tides.
Jock and Xavier Power wade through Sandgate. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen
"I'm getting reports of a number of our creeks reaching capacity, so again this is a double whammy this time compared to 2011," Cr Quirk said.
Ipswich Mayor Paul Pisasale said the forecast peak for the Bremer River was 14.45m, well below the 19.4m peak in 2011.
"Hopefully it's a little bit less than that, and it's also based on 100mm falling in the lower catchment overnight," Cr Pisasale said.
"What we want to do is tell people not to panic because it doesn't peak until midnight. This morning I will be making decisions in regard to evacuations and everything else once we know what the rainfall is."
Cr Quirk said the forecast flooding was "not impacted directly by releases from the dam" which were reduced from about lunchtime yesterday.
Mr Newman, who took responsibility for the decision to lower the level of Wivenhoe and North Pine dams on Friday, said further releases were in the hands of controlling body Seqwater.
Locals collect sandbags , for use if needed later in the day, in Sandgate in wild weather as a result of Ex Tropical cyclone Oswald , as it slowly tracks south through South-east QLD Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen
"What happens is the Bureau of Meteorology do their forecasting with their models, they then provide estimates to SEQWater who plug that modelling into their system and then decide how they have to actually operate the dam," Mr Newman said.
He stressed the looming flood event would be "a far far lesser event than 2011".
"That's why people need to just be calm, look at the (flood) maps first, have a big think and then decide what to do," the Premier said.
"We're putting it out there if people are not on those lists, or those maps, they still might want to think about it, but on the information we've got this afternoon, they're in the clear."
The Insurance Council of Australia praised Mr Newman and Cr Quirk for giving residents as much notice as possible for the likely flood, saying it could help minimise the extent of property damage.
Late yesterday, insurers had received about 2000 claims related to the destructive weather event that has so far stretched from the Cape, to the southeast corner.
Brisbane's Kedron Brook floods as an extreme downpour takes water levels to their highest in a decade.
"Insurers are ready to do what they can. Call centres are standing by right now," Insurance Council Australia communications manager Campbell Fuller said. "They're staffed up and waiting for claims."
He declined to speculate on what impact a repeat dose of flooding would have on insurance policies for households already paying inflated premiums following the 2011 event.
"They will still be able to buy flood cover if they want it, but the cost of the premium will reflect the flood risk," Mr Fuller said.
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